Analysts revise down 2025 NODX forecast amidst trade uncertainty

Singapore’s trade outlook took a hit this week as UOB and RHB revised down their non-oil domestic exports (NODX) forecasts in response to weakening momentum and escalating global trade risks.

UOB now expects a NODX growth of just 1–3% for 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 2–4%, whilst RHB maintained a flat growth projection (0.0%), warning that the expiry of the current 90-day US-China tariff truce on 8 July could trigger renewed headwinds for Singapore's trade.

The downgrade follows a sharp drop in May’s export data. NODX fell by 3.5% YoY, reversing April’s strong 12.4% rebound and missing market expectations of 7.8% growth. Month-on-month, exports contracted 12% on a seasonally adjusted basis—the worst showing in seven months.

Both banks attributed the slide to a fading front-loading effect, where exporters rushed shipments ahead of anticipated US tariffs. Electronics exports, while still positive at 1.7% YoY, slowed significantly from the previous month.

Key export categories such as integrated circuits and PCB assemblies saw diminished performance, while the non-electronics segment contracted by 5.3% YoY, weighed down by petrochemicals, non-monetary gold, and specialised machinery.

RHB noted that the 20.6% YoY decline in exports to the US was especially concerning, given Singapore’s high exposure to global trade. Shipments to other major markets like China, Malaysia, Japan, and the EU also fell, reinforcing fears of weakening global demand.

With tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions casting a shadow over the second half of 2025, both UOB and RHB flagged potential downside risks to Singapore’s manufacturing and export sectors. While some resilience was seen in total trade, which rose 1.0% YoY, analysts caution that without a resolution to trade tensions, export momentum could remain under pressure.